Grading or Waiting? The Opportunity Cost of Card Grading in Today’s Market
Before we begin this only really applies to those looking to try and make a profit with grading. If you are just looking to protect your card for collection purposes, then you could go ahead and ignore this.
In the world of trading card collecting, grading has long been hailed as the gold standard for unlocking maximum value of card. A Black Label is often the dream. But what’s often overlooked is the opportunity cost, the trade-offs that might turn that dream into a missed chance or a large bag to hold.
The Waiting Game: When Two Months Feels Like a Lifetime
PSA and other major graders now routinely report lead times of over two months. In a market driven by trends, hype cycles, and social media influencers, the economy and even politics, two months is an eternity. A card that's white-hot today can be stone cold tomorrow. And by the time your card returns from grading, you may find you're sitting on a PSA 9 that the market has long since moved past.
An example of this is Drowsee 210 card from Scarlet and Violet Base
If you sent in your card to get graded when the cards started gain traction, then you lost your opportunity to cash in on the run up. Y
Another not some uncommon is if you are leveraged then this lead time can put a further strain on your coffers as you waiting for months to get your card backs.
"You can mitigate this risk by submitting and paying for a higher tier of grading, which ensures you get your card back more quickly. However, keep in mind that you might just end up paying more for a grade that turns out worse than you expected.
The Price You Pay: Grading Fees, Upcharges, and Risk
Let's talk numbers. Grading fees have crept up, with PSA's base service already a barrier for casual collectors going from 14.99 to 19.99 for one of there cheaper services. Then come the dreaded upcharge (Only really applies to PSA) if your card is valued too high post grade, you’ll be asked to pay more which increases the risk of grading. And what if your card comes back a 9 or lower? Often, it’ll sell for close to or worse, below raw value, effectively burning your initial grading investment. Not even taking into account fees selling it.
Another risk you have to keep in mind is that sometimes cards are lost/stolen or damaged during the grading process. While there is a claims process to recoup some losses for lost or stolen cards it is often a hassle, and the case may go against you as well. As for damaged cards you can strictly get a worse card then before you submitted (damage can happen during the grading process or shipping) even if it's bundled in case which can be a disappointing to say the least
Uncertainty is the Only Certainty
I want to hammer some previously made points. Card markets are highly reactive and speculative. The set that was booming in November might tank by January. Timing is everything. By locking your card away in grading purgatory, you're also locking out your ability to respond to changes, trends, and flash sales. That’s lost flexibility, and in today’s landscape, flexibility is value.
So What’s the Play?
Grading still has a place especially for cards with long-term holds, fan favorite, and true grails. If you have an market or an audience to quickly move cards, then it may be worth it. If you have the capital, then it maybe worth it. If you are willing to take the time to pre-grade/learn how to then maybe worth it. But in fast-moving markets or when liquidity matters, grading could cost you more in lost time and opportunity than it gives back.
Sometimes, the boldest move isn’t submitting your card for grading it’s knowing when to hold it raw and wait for the right opportunity.